By Brendan O’Neil, Executive Director, of the Vineyard Conservation Society
Reprinted here with the permission of VCS
A recent conference on the subject of climate change impacts in Massachusetts offers some valuable though sobering information about the threats and opportunities we can expect in the years ahead.
Because of the persistence of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions that we have put into the atmosphere, near-term warming of the climate in Southeast Massachusetts and the off-shore Islands is unavoidable. We are locked into warming on the order of 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit over the next three decades. The high emissions path we are currently on will give Martha’s Vineyard a climate similar to that of the Carolinas in that time frame. Lowering our emissions will still give us a changed climate, but more along the lines of the Chesapeake Bay region.
Extreme heat days could go from the current 10 days per summer to at least 30 per season, and as many as 60 days, depending on our ability to rein in our fossil fuel emissions.
Winter precipitation will be more frequent and intense. There will be 10 to 15 fewer snow cover days per month. For the Vineyard, this means that snow cover will essentially cease.
All of this will bring an extraordinary change for the Island’s ecosystems.
Under both the high and low emission tracks, the changes to our natural habitats will actually be about the same, and these changes will be significant. Increased evaporation will reduce soil moisture, shrink wetlands, and reduce the numbers of tree species like maple, and fish species like native brook trout. Migratory bird species will be particularly hard hit. Drought will also bring increased fire risk and exacerbate water quality problems in our ponds, particularly shallow ponds like the Edgartown Great Pond.
Invasive and pest species will change their range as well, moving northward up to 500 miles (under the current high emissions scenario), posing challenges to our native assemblage of species.
On the shoreline, the warming of the ocean caused by emissions trapping heat in the atmosphere will cause the water to expand, and the resulting rise in base sea-level will cause coastal erosion and inundation of wetlands.
Read The Rest of This Article on the Vineyard Conservation Society site >
